Population Aging in Libya: Between Challenges and Investment Opportunities: A Study in Population Geography

Abstract

This research aims to highlight the upcoming demographic phase—the transition to population aging—which Libya is projected to enter after 2030, according to United Nations reports. A key characteristic of this phase is that the proportion of the elderly population (aged 65 and over) will range from 7% to 14% of the total population. The objective is to facilitate advanced planning and optimal investment for this phase. This stands in contrast to the current demographic phase (the demographic window), which is nearly closed and was not effectively utilized. This window is recognized as the golden age of demographic phases; however, Libya reaped its negative outcomes—represented in high rates of general and educated unemployment—more than its benefits, which include increased opportunities for investment and savings due to a larger working-age population. Consequently, the research problem is encapsulated in the following question: What challenges might the Libyan state face upon entering the aging phase, and what are the available opportunities for investing in this demographic phase? Accordingly, we can postulate a set of challenges, the most significant of which is the gradual increase in the proportion of the elderly population. This will have economic and social repercussions, thereby necessitating that the state introduce programs and plans to ensure comprehensive care for this demographic group. This study employed descriptive and historical methodologies to examine the historical evolution of the elderly population (aged 65 and over). For estimating future trends of the elderly population in Libya, ready-made software programs were utilized, including the Spectrum program for population statistics. Among the findings of this research is that Libya will enter the transition to population aging after 2030, a phase that will continue until 2048, during which the proportion of the elderly will range from 7% to 14%.