Relationship Between Thermal Variables and Winter Rainfall at Tripoli Station, Libya: A Statistical Climatological Study for the Period 1944–2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22738586Keywords:
Tripoli, Libya, temperature and precipitation, Pearson correlation, multiple linear regression, Mediterranean climateAbstract
This study aims to analyze the statistical relationship between thermal variables and winter rainfall at Tripoli Station, Libya, during the period 1944–2010. Maximum and minimum air temperatures were used as independent variables, while winter rainfall amounts were treated as the dependent variable. The analysis employed Pearson’s correlation coefficient, simple and multiple linear regression, and Stepwise Regression techniques. The results revealed a statistically significant inverse relationship between maximum temperature and winter rainfall amounts (r = -0.436, p < 0.01), whereas minimum temperature showed no statistically significant relationship with rainfall. The multiple regression model indicated that thermal variables explain approximately 20.7% of the variance in winter rainfall (R² = 0.207), with the model being statistically significant (p = 0.001). Stepwise regression further identified maximum temperature as the most influential variable in explaining rainfall variability. The study concludes that an inverse correlational relationship exists between maximum temperature and winter rainfall in Tripoli. However, this relationship should not be interpreted as causal, as rainfall variability is likely influenced by other climatic and atmospheric dynamics not examined in this study.
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