Analyzing Thermal Extremes Trends in the Libyan Coast: A case Study of Sirte Station (1961–2020)

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the trends of extreme weather events along the Libyan coast, using the Sirte station as a case study representing the transitional zone between marine and desert influences during the period 1991–2020. The methodology employed the Climatic Terciles method, derived from the reference period 1961–1990. This method involved calculating the historical limits of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures for each season, and then classifying subsequent years into three thermal categories (cold/mild/hot) based on these defined limits. Simple linear regression analysis was used to measure the significance of deviations from the expected theoretical distribution. The results showed that the distribution of extreme years deviated significantly from the normal distribution. Maximum temperatures shifted sharply toward the hot category in winter and spring, indicating a decrease in winter cold and a shortening of the period of mild temperatures. Conversely, the hot category dominated minimum temperatures in summer and autumn, reflecting an acceleration in nighttime temperature increases and the persistence of heat stress after sunset. These results confirm an upward trend in the intensity and frequency of extreme thermal phenomena, particularly in nighttime temperatures, which calls for integrating these indicators into climate adaptation and risk management policies on the Libyan coast.